# NY Marathon, Are you kidding?



## nealtw (Nov 2, 2012)

Our hearts broke for the poor people of New Orleans being stuck for days with out help. Alot of people were saying it was their own fault for living there or for being poor or not leaving in time. 
Now we get to see people from all walks of life and every step on the economic ladder become the instant poor with no where to go being set aside and not getting generaters for the real important stuff. "MONEY"


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## Wuzzat? (Nov 2, 2012)

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...s-decision-to-go-ahead-with-new-york-marathon

"The Post points out that the marathon has set up five 800 kiliowatt [sic] generators in Central Park to power things like the race's media tent and crews delivered thousands of bottles of water."

". . .any decision that was made by the mayor would have been controversial and to call off the race would have been equally as controversial," 

He is being paid to make difficult decisions; any idiot can make simple ones.

As to democracy, how many people in NY are without power?  How many people run in a typical NY marathon?

I guess people who run the marathon are more politically connected, intentionally or otherwise, than those who don't.

I guess people who run the marathon cannot in this case be shamed for their vanity.





nealtw said:


> it was their own fault for living there or for being poor or not leaving in time.


Blaming the victim is the subject of Lerner's book, 
"Belief in a just world: a fundamental delusion"
It's bad when judges have it.


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## nealtw (Nov 2, 2012)

". . .any decision that was made by the mayor would have been controversial and to call off the race would have been equally as controversial," 
Bull ----
Everyone hates big government until you need it. We've seen what your big government has done, now we see that small minds try to go back to normal when nothing is back to normal.


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## nealtw (Nov 2, 2012)

I guess I can quit ranting now and we will see who complains now that has been scrubbed.


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## Wuzzat? (Nov 3, 2012)

Jerrold Post, the CIA psych guy, has told me what I can expect from politicians.
I think his onuh, da' mayuh has proved Mr. (Dr.?) Post right.

[ame]http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=lack+empathy+disorder&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8[/ame]


There's another thing.  
My liberal arts wife has told me that some famous emperor or dictator or king has said that people want "bread and circuses".  
If the marathon is a version of a circus, we now know when the people do not have bread they do not want circuses.


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## mudmixer (Nov 3, 2012)

Wazzat -

What is the big deal about the generators? They were rented a long time ago for a short period of time and had to be returned. the organizers will still have to pay all costs and allow return on time. - they will just be on the hook for the costs.

The bottom line is that the lack of municipal and public preparedness is very similar to what I saw in the similarly inept local organizations/authorities to make plans and enforce evacuation before Katrina. - Too many people turned their backs long before a predictable occurrence and never did a thing until too late. The inept and archaic infrastructure is due to being old and lack of funds to get modern.

When I lived in SE VA and near the Outer Banks, there was a saying that every home will eventually be ocean-front. They took things more seriously.

In some places, people plan and celebrate disasters that can be predicted. Blizzards are predictable, but earthquakes are not.

Dick


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## Wuzzat? (Nov 3, 2012)

mudmixer said:


> Wazzat -
> 
> What is the big deal about the generators? They were rented a long time ago for a short period of time and had to be returned. the organizers will still have to pay all costs and allow return on time. - they will just be on the hook for the costs.
> 
> ...


The generators could have been used to provide power to many homes instead of just sitting there.  They are unused valuable resource under the control of the mayor.  
It's like having a whole bunch of food in front of you that you are not supposed to eat; how you view it depends if you're starving or not.

If Sandy was a 100 year storm the public policy people can somewhat defend their lack of preparedness.

If another Sandy comes along next year the NWS maybe needs to modify their computer models.

The predictability of things is relative.


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## mudmixer (Nov 3, 2012)

Why didn't the cities rent the same generators that were returned early?

When you know you have a 1 or 2 level hurricane coming at you a week or so earlier, there is no excuse for not being prepared.

Only the immediate coast saw the hurricane winds, but the predicted storm surge was there. That is typical for all hurricanes.

The NWS predictions are not based on a XXX year storm, but on the current conditions that were known many days or weeks earlier. The XXX year frequency is just a simplistic, very short description of the likelihood of a storm based on about 100 years of history and it is mainly used by the pretty television weathermen that usually are not able to do much more than cite the numbers for the time allotted.

Just like the same thing that LA and MS saw and the people did not take the predictions seriously do some preparation or evacuation or shopping earlier than normal.

Here we are anxiously waiting for a good blizzard (it has been years) since they are quite predictable and the parties can be scheduled in advance and hotel rooms rented if desired.

Weather is just a part of life, no matter where you live. Some people enjoy weather extremes and got out of their way (even travel) to be involved, but they are knowledgeable, plan and are prepared.

Dick


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## Wuzzat? (Nov 3, 2012)

mudmixer said:


> mainly used by the pretty television weathermen


I can honestly say that I have never seen a pretty TV weatherman.   

If his onuh da' mayuh wants to say that he had no idea what was probably going to happen, he doesn't live in the same reality that I live in.  
Plausible deniability will not work with the New Yawkers in this case.

Statisticians have a different opinion of the validity of 1, 2, 5, 10 year floods, storms, and other events.

Most of what's on TV presented as facts are baby food for the incurious.
A reasonably well-respected paper had some stats on the performance of several PoCos presented with the same storm from last June in the NE and their article was ambiguous as to what conclusions the public should draw.  There were gaps in what you needed to know to compare the relative recovery quality.
A good book on this is "A Mathematician reads the Newspapers".


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## nealtw (Nov 5, 2012)

"of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth."
Unless we can move on and make some money over here. Three days to get to Statan Island where were the Helicopters, perhaps they could have used a couple Marine1s, they were just sitting waiting anyway.


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## inspectorD (Nov 5, 2012)

Wuzzat? said:


> Most of what's on TV presented as facts are baby food for the incurious.".



Well now I have to disagree...those weather guys are always dead on.
Oh wait...those aren't facts are they?? darn....


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## Wuzzat? (Nov 5, 2012)

inspectorD said:


> Well now I have to disagree...those weather guys are always dead on.
> Oh wait...those aren't facts are they?? darn....


Well, they are right about winter coming on.  

Now there is talk about relocating people - this just gets worse and worse.


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## nealtw (Nov 5, 2012)

Now there is talk about relocating people - this just gets worse and worse. 

Gee! what a surprize.


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## nealtw (Nov 9, 2012)

Dick; Just triing to make sense of your post.
I push people constantly about talking to engineers for educated opinions  and honestly I expect more thought.
Do you really think no one should have been upset about two generaters sitting under police gard not being used right after the storm.
How exactly would people on the north east coast prepare for a storm that no one has ever seen before (lowest pressure ever recorded)?
We all make jokes about weather man and women not getting right but they are getting better and maybe we should discourage the joking as it could be a matter of life and death.
Some people did go check into hotels and get out of danger and then the hotels were expected to turn them out to make room for runners from around the world.
About shopping early, something has to be said about big retail out fits that don't also have a plan for quick response before the storm to restock shelves. Walmart and HD did't seem to know they would sell out of batterys and such.
There are more than a few reasons that people don't evacuate, I won't go into that but these people know well in advance that they are staying and should be getting good information on what they should be doing to make a better chance to servive. Telling our selves it was there fault just dosn't wash. With me anyway!

There are lots of opinions, some will agree with you and some will agree with me  but I see at as ( if you,re not part of the salution you are the problem.

I am asking you and other engineers here to talk about things that will save lives.


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